The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don?t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the ?impossible.?

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don?t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book?itself a black swan. more

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Smarter Choice Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. ISBN13: 9781400063512. ISBN10: 1400063515. Published by Random House, Inc.. Edition: 07 Used	Textbooks.com 2,445 reviews *smarter certified	$28 $15.40 Coupon 2 coupons available Code:xicyx Detail: Use coupon code xicyx at checkout to enjoy Free Shipping on your order plus enter to win $500 at Textbooks. Expires:Dec-31-2009 Restriction:Unknow Code:No Code Required Detail: Free shipping w/ $25 purchase at Textbooks. Expires:Dec-31-2009 Restriction:Unknow	See it
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Recent Reviews

1/5: From: Amazon; Posted: Jul-26-2009; Mr. Taleb - please check your ego next time you set pen to paper; I first heard Mr. Taleb on a radio interview on NPR, and was fascinated by the discussion. I made it half-way through his book - it has the hallmark effect on me of all good books, in that I found myself wondering often of the ideas he...; read full review | report as inappropriate

5/5: From: Amazon; Posted: Jul-17-2009; A Life Changing Read; This book is a necessary read for all. While it holds a more impactful result among financiers and those working in the world of Finance, it's application and principles hold true for the average person with discussions revolving around...; read full review | report as inappropriate

5/5: From: Amazon; Posted: Jul-10-2009; I thought I was weird....; I thought my life was weird. I work in finance and see crazy things happen occasionally. Normally I profit from those events. Take the market decline of 2008, I was a winner when the street was loosing. I make money in black swan...; read full review | report as inappropriate

4/5: From: Amazon; Posted: Jul-06-2009; The Probability of the Improbable...; An interesting, mostly logical and thought provoking book. The author makes some serious observations but keeps a droll and very readable touch. However, as with any title that addresses philosophies, it requires (at least of me) that,...; read full review | report as inappropriate

Selected Reviews

5/5: From: Amazon; Posted: Jul-17-2009; A Life Changing Read; This book is a necessary read for all. While it holds a more impactful result among financiers and those working in the world of Finance, it's application and principles hold true for the average person with discussions revolving around...; read full review | report as inappropriate

3/5: From: Amazon; Posted: Jan-21-2009; Not a great book; I agree with the review by Gaetan Lion below.I would like to add that to support a few of his views, he resorts to a fictitious story of a writer who publishes on the internet and attains karma. This use of fiction has undermined (in my...; read full review | report as inappropriate

1/5: From: Amazon; Posted: Jul-26-2009; Mr. Taleb - please check your ego next time you set pen to paper; I first heard Mr. Taleb on a radio interview on NPR, and was fascinated by the discussion. I made it half-way through his book - it has the hallmark effect on me of all good books, in that I found myself wondering often of the ideas he...; read full review | report as inappropriate