The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don?t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the ?impossible.?

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don?t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book?itself a black swan. more

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Smarter Choice Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. ISBN13: 9781400063512. ISBN10: 1400063515. Published by Random House, Inc.. Edition: 07 Used	Textbooks.com 2,445 reviews *smarter certified	$28 $15.40 Coupon 2 coupons available Code:xicyx Detail: Use coupon code xicyx at checkout to enjoy Free Shipping on your order plus enter to win $500 at Textbooks. Expires:Dec-31-2009 Restriction:Unknow Code:No Code Required Detail: Free shipping w/ $25 purchase at Textbooks. Expires:Dec-31-2009 Restriction:Unknow	See it
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Recent Reviews

4/5: From: Amazon; Posted: Oct-08-2009; Sarcastic, snobby writing about a topic that's actually important; When I reviewed Taleb's other book, Fooled By Randomness, I gave it 3 stars and later I thought I probably was too harsh. It was an important and interesting book but it just made me feel less than delighted. I figured it deserved a 4...; read full review | report as inappropriate

5/5: From: Amazon; Posted: Oct-06-2009; I always felt uneasy about the bell curve and now I know why; This book puts forward what might be considered by many to be a revolutionary set of challenges to conventional ways of thinking about several very important topics related to "highly improbable" events. The book was written before the...; read full review | report as inappropriate

4/5: From: Amazon; Posted: Oct-04-2009; Our models of uncertainty are completely flawed; Messy, arrogant, irreverent, annoying, lengthy though never boring... with insight (from 2007) such as "Fannie Mae is sitting on dynamite" and the financial market is up for a big crash due to cross exposure and reliance on flawed...; read full review | report as inappropriate

2/5: From: Amazon; Posted: Oct-04-2009; Very disappointing; I have had this sitting on my Kindle for a month, and was really looking forward to it. What a disappointment! This appears to be the author's single good idea padded out with endless fluff and the occasional political jabs. Worth four...; read full review | report as inappropriate

Selected Reviews

4/5: From: Amazon; Posted: Oct-08-2009; Sarcastic, snobby writing about a topic that's actually important; When I reviewed Taleb's other book, Fooled By Randomness, I gave it 3 stars and later I thought I probably was too harsh. It was an important and interesting book but it just made me feel less than delighted. I figured it deserved a 4...; read full review | report as inappropriate

3/5: From: Amazon; Posted: Jan-21-2009; Not a great book; I agree with the review by Gaetan Lion below.I would like to add that to support a few of his views, he resorts to a fictitious story of a writer who publishes on the internet and attains karma. This use of fiction has undermined (in my...; read full review | report as inappropriate

2/5: From: Amazon; Posted: Oct-04-2009; Very disappointing; I have had this sitting on my Kindle for a month, and was really looking forward to it. What a disappointment! This appears to be the author's single good idea padded out with endless fluff and the occasional political jabs. Worth four...; read full review | report as inappropriate